The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How Strong Are Iran’s Strongmen?
English Summary
Historian Stephen Kotkin argues that authoritarian regimes, while appearing formidable, possess inherent structural vulnerabilities that can be exploited. His analysis, drawing on historical precedents and observations of regimes like Iran, suggests that the mechanisms used by strongmen to maintain power also create points of instability. Consequently, the prospect of rapid regime change through military intervention is highly complex and unlikely to proceed smoothly. Policymakers must therefore understand the deep structural weaknesses of these regimes rather than relying on assumptions of quick collapse.
中文摘要
歷史學家史蒂芬·科特金（Stephen Kotkin）認為，威權政權雖然看似強大，但卻具備可被利用的內在結構性弱點。他的分析援引了歷史先例，並觀察了伊朗等政權的狀況，指出強人維持權力所採用的機制，本身也創造了不穩定點。因此，透過軍事干預實現政權快速變革的可能性極為複雜，且難以順利進行。政策制定者必須了解這些政權深層的結構性弱點，而非僅依賴快速崩潰的假設。
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