The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How Iran’s ‘forward defence’ became a strategic boomerang
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Iran's long-standing 'forward defence' strategy has backfired, drawing the Islamic Republic into a direct and existential war with the U.S. and Israel. The systemic weakening of the 'axis of resistance'—marked by the fall of the Assad regime and significant losses for Hezbollah and Hamas—has collapsed the proxy-based shield Tehran used to avoid direct confrontation. As a result, Iran faces a severe degradation of its regional influence and must now manage a conflict on its own soil that it spent four decades trying to externalize. This strategic 'boomerang' likely necessitates a fundamental and painful reconfiguration of Iran’s national security doctrine.
中文摘要
皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）指出，伊朗長期奉行的「前沿防禦」戰略已產生反噬，使該伊斯蘭共和國捲入與美國及以色列直接且關乎存亡的戰爭。隨著阿薩德政權倒台以及真主黨與哈瑪斯遭受重創，「抵抗之弧」的系統性削弱瓦解了德黑蘭過去用以避免直接對抗的代理人屏障。因此，伊朗面臨區域影響力的嚴重衰退，目前必須在本土應對其過去四十年來竭力外推的衝突。這場戰略「迴力鏢」可能迫使伊朗對其國家安全學說進行根本性且痛苦的重構。
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