The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
US-Israel war on Iran: How is Tehran's regional 'axis of resistance' responding?
English Summary
The article analyzes the resilience and adaptation of Iran’s “axis of resistance” amid unprecedented US and Israeli efforts to dismantle the network and target Tehran directly. While the June 2025 conflict marked a shift toward direct Iranian action, proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis continue to survive and evolve despite sustained decapitation campaigns. The persistence of these actors implies that current containment strategies are failing to fully degrade the network, requiring a fundamental reassessment of security policies in the Middle East.
中文摘要
本文分析了在美國與以色列採取前所未有的行動試圖瓦解該網絡並直接針對德黑蘭之際，伊朗「抵抗之弧」的韌性與適應性。儘管 2025 年 6 月的衝突標誌著伊朗轉向採取直接行動，但真主黨與胡塞武裝等代理組織在持續的斬首行動下仍能生存並演變。這些行為者的持續存在顯示，目前的遏制戰略未能有效削弱該網絡，因此有必要對中東的安全政策進行根本性的重新評估。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.
-
3.
Despite recent trade setbacks, the U.S. retains fundamental structural economic leverage over China, particularly in high-tech sectors and intermediate goods. While Beijing can temporarily weaponize specific resources like rare earths, these chokepoints are vulnerable to diversification efforts by the West. The article argues that the most effective strategy is not unilateral action but coordinated multilateral pressure from U.S. allies across Asia and Europe. Washington must therefore coordinate its economic statecraft with partners to maximize damage to China’s export-dependent model.
-
4.U.S. Navy Orders Low-cost Missiles to Expand Fleet, Allied Long-Range Maritime Strike Capabilities (USNI)
The U.S. Navy is prioritizing the procurement of low-cost, long-range cruise missiles through programs like CHAOS and CAMS to significantly expand strike capabilities for both its own fleet and allied partners. This strategic shift provides affordable precision munitions capable of striking targets up to 1,000 nautical miles, addressing critical stockpiles depleted by recent conflicts. By developing these systems, the U.S. aims to overcome procurement delays faced by allies (such as Japan and Taiwan) who rely on older missile designs. Ultimately, this initiative strengthens allied deterrence and bolsters long-range maritime strike capabilities necessary for potential conflict with China.
-
5.
Escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S., coupled with renewed Houthi blockades in the Red Sea, have severely disrupted critical shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Key evidence includes sharply reduced transit numbers and repeated attacks by Iranian-linked vessels off Oman's coast, while the Houthis enforce a maritime embargo on Saudi-linked ships. Strategically, this instability threatens global energy markets, forcing major powers to weigh their import needs. The continued volatility suggests that both Iran and the U.S. are willing to absorb significant economic pain to gain geopolitical leverage over regional stability.