Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
US-Israel war on Iran: How is Tehran's regional 'axis of resistance' responding?
English Summary
The article analyzes the resilience and adaptation of Iran’s “axis of resistance” amid unprecedented US and Israeli efforts to dismantle the network and target Tehran directly. While the June 2025 conflict marked a shift toward direct Iranian action, proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis continue to survive and evolve despite sustained decapitation campaigns. The persistence of these actors implies that current containment strategies are failing to fully degrade the network, requiring a fundamental reassessment of security policies in the Middle East.
中文摘要
本文分析了在美國與以色列採取前所未有的行動試圖瓦解該網絡並直接針對德黑蘭之際，伊朗「抵抗之弧」的韌性與適應性。儘管 2025 年 6 月的衝突標誌著伊朗轉向採取直接行動，但真主黨與胡塞武裝等代理組織在持續的斬首行動下仍能生存並演變。這些行為者的持續存在顯示，目前的遏制戰略未能有效削弱該網絡，因此有必要對中東的安全政策進行根本性的重新評估。
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