The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
US-Israel war on Iran: How is Tehran's regional 'axis of resistance' responding?
English Summary
The article analyzes the resilience and adaptation of Iran’s “axis of resistance” amid unprecedented US and Israeli efforts to dismantle the network and target Tehran directly. While the June 2025 conflict marked a shift toward direct Iranian action, proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis continue to survive and evolve despite sustained decapitation campaigns. The persistence of these actors implies that current containment strategies are failing to fully degrade the network, requiring a fundamental reassessment of security policies in the Middle East.
中文摘要
本文分析了在美國與以色列採取前所未有的行動試圖瓦解該網絡並直接針對德黑蘭之際，伊朗「抵抗之弧」的韌性與適應性。儘管 2025 年 6 月的衝突標誌著伊朗轉向採取直接行動，但真主黨與胡塞武裝等代理組織在持續的斬首行動下仍能生存並演變。這些行為者的持續存在顯示，目前的遏制戰略未能有效削弱該網絡，因此有必要對中東的安全政策進行根本性的重新評估。
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