The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
USMCA has strengthened economic integration in North America
English Summary
USMCA has significantly deepened North American economic integration, with compliance rates for Mexican and Canadian exports rising to nearly 80% following 2025 tariff increases on non-agreement goods. Mexico has solidified its role as the top U.S. trading partner, transitioning toward high-value advanced technology sectors like AI servers and medical devices while de-risking from China. However, rising labor costs and policy uncertainty have constrained new investment and employment in traditional manufacturing. The report suggests the 2026 USMCA review must prioritize realistic regional content requirements and infrastructure improvements to sustain the current nearshoring momentum.
中文摘要
《美墨加協定》（USMCA）顯著深化了北美經濟整合。隨著 2025 年對非協定商品調升關稅，墨西哥與加拿大的出口合規率已升至近 80%。墨西哥鞏固了其作為美國最大貿易夥伴的地位，在對中國進行去風險化的同時，正向人工智慧伺服器和醫療器材等高價值先進技術領域轉型。然而，勞動成本上升與政策不確定性限制了傳統製造業的新增投資與就業。報告建議，2026 年的 USMCA 審查必須優先考慮務實的區域產值含量要求與基礎設施改善，以維持當前的近岸外包動能。
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