The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Autonomous Ukraine: Allies, Partners, or Frenemies?
English Summary
This CFR podcast examines how the war in Ukraine is sustained by competing alliance networks: NATO and European allies backing Ukraine, while Russia draws critical support from China (economic and technological), Iran (drones), and North Korea (troops and munitions). The analysis highlights that neither coalition is a traditional bloc alliance—China carefully avoids direct weapons transfers to protect its economy and reputation, while the U.S. under Trump has shifted from alliance leader to self-styled neutral mediator with a pro-Russia lean, forcing Europeans to dramatically increase their own defense commitments. The episode argues that the global order is moving toward more transactional, fragile partnerships rather than values-based alliances, creating a less stable and more unpredictable security environment than even the Cold War's rigid bipolarity.
中文摘要
本集 CFR 播客探討烏克蘭戰爭如何由相互競爭的聯盟網絡所維繫：北約及歐洲盟國支持烏克蘭，而俄羅斯則從中國（經濟與技術）、伊朗（無人機）及北韓（兵員與彈藥）獲取關鍵援助。分析指出，雙方陣營均非傳統的集團式聯盟——中國為保護自身經濟與聲譽，審慎避免直接武器轉讓；而川普治下的美國已從聯盟領袖轉型為自詡中立、實則親俄的調停者，迫使歐洲各國大幅提升自身國防承諾。節目認為，全球秩序正朝向更具交易性質、更為脆弱的夥伴關係演變，而非以價值觀為基礎的聯盟體系，由此形成的安全環境比冷戰時期僵化的兩極格局更不穩定、更難預測。
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