The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iran War is Causing Energy Chaos in Asia
English Summary
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have led to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting Gulf oil production by 10 million barrels per day and reducing strait transit to less than 10 percent of pre-war levels, causing acute energy shortages across Asia. Asian governments are resorting to fuel rationing, shortened workweeks, and costly subsidies to manage the crisis, but most countries could exhaust oil reserves within a month, while factories shutter and tourism plummets. The unsustainable fiscal burden of subsidies—already pushing Indonesia past its legal deficit cap—combined with historical precedents of fuel-price-driven unrest across South and Southeast Asia, raises the risk of severe economic contraction and political instability if the conflict persists through the summer.
中文摘要
美國與以色列對伊朗發動空襲，導致德黑蘭封鎖荷莫茲海峽，波斯灣石油日產量驟減一千萬桶，海峽通行量降至戰前水準的不到一成，亞洲各國面臨嚴峻的能源短缺危機。各國政府被迫實施燃料配給、縮短每週工時並投入高昂補貼以應對危機，但多數國家的石油儲備恐在一個月內耗盡，同時工廠停工、觀光業急遽萎縮。補貼造成的財政負擔難以為繼——印尼已突破其法定赤字上限——加上南亞及東南亞地區因燃料價格上漲引發社會動盪的歷史前例，若衝突持續至夏季，將大幅升高嚴重經濟衰退與政治動盪的風險。
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