The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Can the NPT review conference stop a new nuclear arms race?
English Summary
The 2026 NPT review conference faces significant obstacles following the expiration of the New START treaty and a shift in US nuclear policy toward more aggressive deterrence and less emphasis on denuclearization. Experts caution that allegations of secret nuclear tests and the potential resumption of global testing threaten to unleash a new arms race, undermining decades of non-proliferation efforts. As confidence in traditional US security guarantees and NATO’s Article V wanes, European allies are increasingly compelled to seek alternative collective defense and deterrence arrangements.
中文摘要
2026年《不擴散核武器條約》（NPT）審議大會正面臨重大障礙，主因在於《新削減戰略武器條約》（New START）屆滿失效，以及美國核政策轉向更具侵略性的威懾，並減少對去核化的重視。專家警告，有關秘密核試驗的指控以及全球恢復核試驗的潛在可能，威脅引發新一輪軍備競賽，從而削弱數十年來的核不擴散努力。隨著對傳統美國安全保證及北約第五條款的信心減弱，歐洲盟友日益被迫尋求替代的集體防禦與威懾安排。
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