The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Simulating Southeast Asias Nuclear Security Crisis Responses
English Summary
An IISS crisis simulation found that Southeast Asian nations lack the 'strategic bandwidth' and specialized literacy required to manage a major nuclear-security escalation involving great powers. Centered on a 2031 scenario of a missing nuclear submarine, the exercise highlighted that regional states rely on the SEANWFZ Treaty as a baseline but struggle to bridge the divide between China and the AUKUS partnership. Consequently, the report recommends that ASEAN enhance domestic inter-agency coordination and utilize the ADMM-Plus framework to more effectively address nuclear-related regional security threats.
中文摘要
國際戰略研究所 (IISS) 的一場危機模擬發現，東南亞國家缺乏應對涉及大國重大核安全升級所需的「戰略頻寬」與專業素養。該演習以 2031 年核潛艦失蹤的場景為中心，凸顯出區域國家雖以《東南亞無核武器區條約》(SEANWFZ) 為基準，但在彌合中國與 AUKUS 夥伴關係的分歧方面仍感吃力。因此，報告建議東協應加強國內跨部門協調，並利用東協國防部長擴大會議 (ADMM-Plus) 架構，以更有效地應對與核相關的區域安全威脅。
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