The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
The Two Israels
English Summary
The article introduces a stark dichotomy within the Middle East, contrasting two distinct national models. The first country is characterized by high economic productivity ($80,000 GDP per capita), advanced technology, and support for liberal democracy. Conversely, the second country exhibits signs of stagnation, marked by high unemployment and low-skill, low-paying jobs, with a GDP per capita less than half that of its counterpart. This significant divergence suggests that regional stability and future development trajectories are highly dependent on economic modernization and institutional strength, making the distinction critical for strategic policy planning.
中文摘要
本文介紹了中東地區一個鮮明的二元對立，對比了兩種截然不同的國家模式。第一個國家具有高經濟生產力（人均GDP達8萬美元）、先進技術，並支持自由民主體制。相反地，第二個國家則呈現出停滯的跡象，表現為高失業率和低技能、低薪工作，其人均GDP甚至不到前者的半部。這種巨大的分歧顯示，該地區的穩定性與未來發展軌跡，高度依賴於經濟現代化和制度強度，因此，這一區別對於制定戰略政策規劃至關重要。
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