ThinkTankWeekly

Will the new world order put the brake on trade?

Chatham House | 2026-03-19 | economy

Topics: Trade, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that the shift toward domestic-focused economic policies and the decline of U.S.-led 'hegemonic stability' are creating a precarious environment for global trade. Drawing on historical precedents like the Pax Britannica and Pax Americana, it suggests that trade growth flourishes when a dominant power fosters international policy alignment, which is now fracturing. Consequently, rising protectionism threatens to trigger a vicious cycle of economic decline, disproportionately harming emerging and developing nations that rely on open market integration.

中文摘要

本文指出,轉向以國內為中心的經濟政策,以及美國領導的「霸權穩定」衰退,正在為全球貿易創造一個動盪的環境。借鑒大英帝國和平(Pax Britannica)與美國和平(Pax Americana)等歷史先例,文章認為,當主導大國促進國際政策協調時,貿易增長便能蓬勃發展,而這種局面目前正在瓦解。因此,日益抬頭的保護主義威脅著要引發經濟衰退的惡性循環,這對依賴開放市場整合的新興及發展中國家造成的損害尤為嚴重。

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