The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump, Xi, and the Case for Strategic Calm
English Summary
The U.S. and China are currently navigating a period of strategic calm following years of elevated tensions. This détente is evidenced by a recent truce agreement between President Trump and Xi Jinping, which temporarily paused the trade war and lifted restrictions on critical resources like rare-earth elements. While this pause represents a significant de-escalation, the article cautions that the stability is fragile. Therefore, the outcome of future high-level meetings will be crucial for determining if this strategic calm can be maintained or if tensions will resurface.
中文摘要
美中雙方目前正經歷一段戰略緩和期，此前數年來一直處於高度緊張狀態。這種解緊氣氛體現在近期川普總統與習近平主席達成的休戰協議上，該協議暫時中止了貿易戰，並解除對稀土元素等關鍵資源的限制。儘管這段停歇代表了顯著的降級升級，但本文警示其穩定性極為脆弱。因此，未來高層級會議的結果將至關重要，決定此戰略緩和期能否維持，或緊張局勢是否會再度浮現。
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