The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
US energy prices were set to rise long before the Iran war
English Summary
The article argues that structural domestic factors, rather than just the US-Israeli war with Iran, are driving a long-term increase in US energy prices. Rising demand from data centers and expanded LNG exports are clashing with a tightening supply as the Trump administration rolls back low-cost renewable energy incentives and faces higher extraction costs from expensive gas basins. Consequently, American consumers are likely to experience significantly higher electricity and fuel costs, a trend exacerbated by deregulation and the removal of efficiency standards.
中文摘要
本文指出，推動美國能源價格長期上漲的關鍵在於國內結構性因素，而非僅限於美國、以色列與伊朗之間的戰爭。資料中心需求的增長以及液化天然氣（LNG）出口的擴張，正與供應收緊產生衝突；與此同時，川普政府正取消低成本再生能源的激勵措施，且面臨高成本天然氣盆地開採成本上升的問題。因此，美國消費者極可能面臨電力與燃料成本顯著增加的困境，而解除管制與廢除效率標準則進一步惡化了此一趨勢。
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