The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How Iran Sees the War
English Summary
Contrary to U.S. and Israeli predictions of collapse, Iran views the conflict as a strategic opportunity to consolidate its regime's power and restore regional deterrence. The regime is leveraging the war to bolster domestic legitimacy, transforming internal dissent into a 'rally-around-the-flag' martyrdom culture, mirroring historical precedents like the Iran-Iraq War. Strategically, Iran has shifted toward raw offense, evidenced by closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening multiple choke points. Policymakers must recognize that Tehran perceives the conflict as having few rules, suggesting that continued military action risks rapid, unpredictable escalation and a severe global economic crisis.
中文摘要
與美國和以色列預測的政權崩潰相反，伊朗將此次衝突視為鞏固其政權權力和恢復區域威懾力的戰略機遇。該政權正利用戰爭來鞏固國內合法性，將內部異議轉化為一種「團結旗幟式」的殉道文化，這呼應了歷史上的先例，例如伊拉克-伊朗戰爭。從戰略角度來看，伊朗已轉向純粹的進攻姿態，證據包括封鎖霍爾木茲海峽並威脅多個關鍵瓶頸要道。政策制定者必須認識到，德黑蘭認為這場衝突缺乏規則，這暗示了持續的軍事行動將導致快速、不可預測的升級，並引發嚴重的全球經濟危機。
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