The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Marion Messmer: ‘Peace made by women is more durable’
English Summary
Marion Messmer argues that international security is becoming increasingly volatile due to the proliferation of nuclear deterrence and the democratization of military technology like drones. She highlights how intangible advancements in AI and cyber-operations are reshaping the battlefield, making it harder to track adversaries and manage escalation. Ultimately, she suggests that while technology and non-state actors present significant new risks, incorporating diverse perspectives into the male-dominated security field is essential for building more resilient and durable peace.
中文摘要
Marion Messmer 指出，隨著核威懾的擴散以及無人機等軍事技術的普及化，國際安全局勢正日趨動盪。她強調人工智能與網絡行動等無形技術的進步正重新定義戰場，增加了追蹤對手及管控升級風險的難度。她最終主張，儘管技術演進與非國家行為者帶來了顯著的新風險，但若要建立更具韌性且持久的和平，將多元觀點納入長期由男性主導的安全領域至關重要。
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