The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
U.S. Foreign Policy and the Lessons of History
English Summary
The article highlights two central lessons from the history of U.S. foreign policy: the frequent occurrence of unforeseen global shifts and the persistent overestimation of military power's ability to achieve political goals. Drawing on examples from the Cold War to recent interventions in the Middle East, it illustrates how strategic expectations are often dashed by the resilience of local actors and the unpredictability of international alliances. The findings suggest that U.S. strategy should shift toward humility and pragmatism, acknowledging the limits of power and the inherent uncertainty of global events to better adapt to a changing world.
中文摘要
本文指出了美國外交政策歷史中的兩個核心教訓：全球變局的不可預見性，以及對軍事力量實現政治目標能力的持續高估。文章結合從冷戰到近期中東干預的實例，闡述了戰略預期如何經常因地方行為者的韌性及國際盟友關係的變幻莫測而落空。研究結果建議，美國戰略應轉向謙遜與務實，承認權力的局限性及全球事件固有的不確定性，以更好地適應不斷變化的世界。
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