The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
A Balanced Budget Amendment That Borrows from Switzerland’s Fiscal Playbook
English Summary
The article analyzes H.J. Res. 139, a balanced budget amendment by Rep. Andy Biggs that caps federal spending at a three-year rolling average of revenues adjusted for population growth and inflation, targeting structural primary balance rather than rigid annual balance. This design draws on Switzerland's successful debt brake, which has helped reduce Swiss debt-to-GDP by allowing cyclical flexibility while enforcing medium-term discipline. However, the amendment contains two significant flaws: a wartime exception requiring only a simple majority that creates perverse incentives for declarations of war to bypass spending limits, and a two-thirds supermajority requirement for tax increases that undermines political neutrality and makes bipartisan ratification virtually impossible. The author recommends fixing both the emergency loophole and the tax-increase provision to produce a durable, credible fiscal rule.
中文摘要
本文分析眾議員乔安迪·比格斯提出的聯合決議案 H.J. Res. 139——一項平衡預算修正案，將聯邦支出上限設定為經人口成長與通膨調整後的三年滾動平均收入，旨在實現結構性基本收支平衡，而非僵化的年度平衡。此設計借鑑瑞士成功的「債務煞車」機制，該機制在維持景氣循環彈性的同時執行中期財政紀律，有效降低了瑞士的債務佔 GDP 比率。然而，該修正案存在兩項重大缺陷：其一，戰時例外條款僅需簡單多數即可通過，形成透過宣戰來規避支出上限的扭曲誘因；其二，加稅須經三分之二絕對多數同意的規定破壞了政治中立性，使跨黨派批准幾乎不可能實現。作者建議修正緊急狀態漏洞與加稅條款，以建立持久且具公信力的財政規則。
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