The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump Should Aim to Neutralize the Iran Regime, Not Destroy It
English Summary
Charles Kupchan argues that the Trump administration should pursue a strategy of neutralizing Iran's regime rather than attempting to topple it, advocating for an 'Islamic Republic 2.0' with moderate leadership and strict constraints on its nuclear, missile, and proxy capabilities. He draws on the disastrous outcomes of U.S.-led regime change in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria to warn that dismantling the Islamic Republic would likely produce state fracture, civil war, and regional instability rather than democracy. The article notes that Iran's deeply embedded security apparatus—over one million troops plus paramilitary forces—makes regime collapse unlikely through airpower alone, while arming ethnic minorities risks igniting a multi-country civil war. Kupchan recommends focusing military strikes on degrading Iran's military capability while maintaining diplomatic channels to pragmatic Iranian elites, arguing that a defanged regime, even if imperfect, is far preferable to the chaos of state collapse.
中文摘要
乔治城大學教授乔尔斯·库普坎（Charles Kupchan）主張，川普政府應採取「中和」伊朗政權的策略，而非試圖推翻它。他倡議打造一個「伊斯蘭共和國2.0」，由溫和派領導並對其核武、飛彈及代理人能力施加嚴格限制。庫普坎援引美國在阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亞及敘利亞推動政權更迭的災難性後果，警告瓦解伊斯蘭共和國極可能導致國家分裂、內戰及區域動盪，而非民主轉型。文章指出，伊朗根深蒂固的安全體系——逾百萬正規軍加上準軍事部隊——使得僅憑空中打擊難以促成政權崩潰，而武裝少數族裔則有引發跨國內戰的風險。庫普坎建議將軍事打擊聚焦於削弱伊朗的軍事能力，同時保持與伊朗務實派菁英的外交管道，認為一個被「去爪」的政權即便不完美，也遠優於國家崩潰所帶來的混亂。
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