The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Starmer’s handling of Trump and Iran reflects public opinion, but shows the limits of UK power
English Summary
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's cautious response to the Iran war initially aligned with British public opinion (59% opposition to the conflict), generating domestic political support but triggering friction with an unpredictable Trump administration. While Starmer's decision to deny US military base access reflected public sentiment, he later made gradual concessions to sustain the UK-US relationship, creating a delicate balancing act between alliance obligations and domestic priorities. The prolonged conflict now threatens his two core objectives: achieving economic recovery (interest rate cuts delayed, energy and food costs rising) and maintaining strong ties with Trump, while exposing significant gaps in UK military capability and straining relations with Gulf allies and Cyprus. The article highlights a fundamental strategic dilemma for Britain: whether closer alignment with the US enables greater influence over decisions or whether maintaining distance better protects national interests, with major implications for UK autonomy and its future role in the Middle East.
中文摘要
英國首相基爾·斯塔默對伊朗戰爭的謹慎態度初期與英國公眾輿論一致（59%反對該衝突），產生了國內政治支持，但引發了與難以預測的川普政府的摩擦。雖然斯塔默拒絕美軍使用軍事基地的決定反映了公眾情緒，但他後來為維持英美關係而逐步做出讓步，在聯盟義務與國內優先事項之間進行微妙的平衡。這場長期衝突現已威脅到他的兩個核心目標：實現經濟復甦（利率下調延遲、能源和食品成本上升）以及保持與川普的牢固關係，同時暴露了英國軍事能力的重大缺陷，並加劇了與海灣盟國和塞浦路斯的關係緊張。該文章突出了英國面臨的根本性戰略困境：更緊密地與美國保持一致是否能夠增強對決策的影響力，還是保持距離更能保護國家利益，這對英國自主權和其在中東的未來角色具有重大影響。
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