The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Iran’s Long Game
English Summary
The analysis argues that conventional metrics of conflict—such as military damage or losses—are insufficient for assessing Iran's true position. Instead, the critical measure is whether Tehran is successfully achieving its long-term strategic objectives. Despite suffering significant conventional blows from adversaries, the article posits that Iran is strategically succeeding due to careful preparation and planning. Policymakers must therefore shift focus from immediate military assessments to understanding Iran's enduring strategic resilience and geopolitical aims in the region.
中文摘要
本分析認為，傳統的衝突衡量標準，例如軍事損失或破壞程度，不足以評估伊朗的真實地位。關鍵指標應轉向評估德黑蘭是否成功實現其長期戰略目標。儘管遭受敵對方的重大傳統打擊，本文指出伊朗由於周密的準備和規劃，在戰略上仍取得了成功。因此，政策制定者必須將焦點從即時的軍事評估，轉移到理解伊朗持久的戰略韌性及其在該地區的地緣政治目標。
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