The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Syria and the Levant
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Assad’s abrupt fall in December 2024 revealed Syria’s state fragility, the limited capacity of Iran and Russia to sustain him, and the strategic failure of past Western policy. It reasons that Syria’s transition will be shaped by neighboring states—especially Turkey, Jordan, Israel, and Lebanon—which see both security risks and geopolitical openings as a new government seeks reconstruction support. The analysis highlights Lebanon’s governance stress from Hezbollah’s weakening after conflict with Israel, and Jordan’s added vulnerability as U.S. policy under President Donald Trump may intensify West Bank dynamics. Policy strategy should therefore prioritize a genuinely Syrian-led political transition, disciplined regional burden-sharing, and early safeguards against spillover instability in Lebanon and Jordan while avoiding prior external policy mistakes.
中文摘要
研究所指出，阿塞德政權於2024年12月的突然垮台，暴露出敘利亞國家體制的脆弱性、伊朗與俄羅斯維持其統治能力的有限性，以及過去西方政策的戰略失敗。該文認為，敘利亞的轉型將由周邊國家塑造，尤其是土耳其、約旦、以色列與黎巴嫩；在新政府尋求重建支持之際，這些國家同時看到安全風險與地緣政治機會。分析強調，黎巴嫩在真主黨與以色列衝突後勢力走弱，致使其治理壓力加劇；同時，隨著美國總統唐納·川普政府的政策可能加劇西岸局勢，約旦的脆弱性也進一步上升。因此，政策策略應優先推動真正由敘利亞主導的政治轉型、推進有紀律的區域責任分擔，並及早建立防範機制，以遏止不穩定外溢至黎巴嫩與約旦，同時避免重蹈過去外部政策的覆轍。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
Congress has significantly expanded presidential tariff authority by passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, allowing the executive to impose up to 100% tariffs on key buyers of Russian energy and sanctions enablers. The article argues that this legislation represents a dangerous abdication of Congress's Article I authority, as it grants the executive vast, discretionary power without specifying criteria for enforcement. Historically, the executive could claim tariffs were its own doing; however, by writing and passing this new authority, Congress now owns the resulting trade policy and its economic consequences. This shift implies that future tariffs will be viewed by the public as a direct legislative action, potentially undermining the administration's credibility and creating political vulnerability.
-
3.
Cuba is on a trajectory toward an accelerating state and economic collapse, risking a point of no return. The state is deteriorating into "authoritarian anarchy," retaining its capacity for political repression but losing the ability to provide basic public services like health and safety. Economically, while the private sector is growing, this expansion is highly unequal, fueling cronyism and widening class gaps between the elite and the poor. If the current trend continues, the country risks calcifying these defects into a dysfunctional baseline, severely diminishing the chances of a stable, democratic transition.
-
4.
The article analyzes Finland's agreement to coordinate its conventional forces with French nuclear capabilities, clarifying that no nuclear weapons will be stationed in Finland. The author argues that increased communication between nuclear powers, rather than the deployment of weapons, is beneficial for reducing the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, particularly near Russia. For Europe, the policy recommendation is a responsible middle course: strengthening non-nuclear military capabilities to deter Russia while simultaneously negotiating a stable system, such as non-aligned buffer states. This approach is presented as a diplomatic alternative to both aggressive military action and surrender.
-
5.
The article argues that China's ongoing purges are not signs of weakness, but rather a sophisticated, historically rooted process of 'rectification' that strengthens the CCP's grip on power. This mechanism requires cadres to submit mandatory self-criticisms and build permanent, detailed personnel files (dossiers). This system of record-keeping is the CCP's primary source of resilience, creating profound, internalized discipline that controls internal dissent. Policymakers must recognize that the regime's durability stems from this deep internal control mechanism, making succession—rather than internal purges—the ultimate strategic vulnerability.