The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Remembering the Alaska Purchase
English Summary
Secretary of State William Seward negotiated the 1867 purchase of Russian America (Alaska) for $7.2 million through a night-long negotiation with Russian minister Baron Eduard de Stoeckl. Critics initially mocked the deal as "Seward's Folly," viewing it as wasteful spending on a frozen wasteland, but the acquisition proved strategically brilliant by expanding U.S. territory, pushing Russia out of North America, and generating enormous wealth through subsequent gold and oil discoveries. Seward's vision was to dominate the northern Pacific and establish U.S. strategic control over trade routes to Asia, reflecting his broader Manifest Destiny ambitions. The deal ultimately demonstrated that territorial expansion requires patience and foresight to recognize long-term strategic value despite immediate criticism.
中文摘要
1867年，美國國務卿威廉·蘇厄德（William Seward）與俄國駐美公使愛德華·德·斯托克爾男爵（Baron Eduard de Stoeckl）歷經徹夜談判，最終以720萬美元達成俄屬北美（阿拉斯加）購案。儘管當時輿論將此舉譏為「蘇厄德的愚行」（Seward's Folly），視其為對冰封荒原的揮霍，但此項收購案隨後展現了卓越的戰略價值：它不僅大幅擴張了美國版圖，將俄國勢力徹底逐出北美大陸，更因後續金礦與石油的發現而創造了驚人的經濟效益。蘇厄德的願景在於主導北太平洋，並確立美國對亞洲貿易航線的戰略控制，這充分體現了他擴張「昭昭天命」（Manifest Destiny）的宏大抱負。此一外交案例最終證明，領土擴張需具備超越當前輿論壓力的耐心與遠見，方能識別並實現其長遠的戰略價值。
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