The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Autonomous Ukraine: We Are in a New Era of Warfare
English Summary
The war in Ukraine has inaugurated a new era of 'precise mass' warfare, characterized by the deployment of millions of low-cost autonomous drones that are reshaping the battlefield and blurring traditional front lines. Key evidence includes Ukraine's rapid production of millions of drones and the critical role of Silicon Valley firms in providing AI and satellite connectivity, which often bypasses traditional, slower defense procurement cycles. These developments imply that the U.S. and its allies must urgently adapt their defense industrial bases to prioritize both high-volume production and rapid innovation while managing the strategic risks associated with private sector control of essential military technologies.
中文摘要
烏克蘭戰爭開啟了「精準規模」（precise mass）戰爭的新時代，其特點是部署了數百萬架低成本自主無人機，正在重塑戰場並模糊了傳統的前線。關鍵證據包括烏克蘭快速生產數百萬架無人機，以及矽谷公司在提供人工智慧和衛星連接方面發揮的關鍵作用，這通常繞過了傳統且較慢的國防採購週期。這些發展意味著美國及其盟國必須緊急調整其國防工業基礎，優先考慮大規模生產和快速創新，同時管理與私營部門控制關鍵軍事技術相關的戰略風險。
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