Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Any Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon will work to Hezbollah’s advantage
English Summary
Prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon threatens to backfire strategically by strengthening Hezbollah rather than weakening it. The analysis argues that military presence will further destabilize Lebanon's fragile state institutions, which are already struggling to provide services and establish legitimacy after recent conflicts. While Hezbollah suffered significant losses following Israel's decapitation of its leadership in September 2024, continued Israeli military operations create conditions for the group to reconstitute as a dispersed guerrilla force and rebuild popular support, particularly among Lebanese Shia communities. The report recommends prioritizing international support to strengthen Lebanese state capacity and provide essential services, coupled with diplomatic efforts to address external Iranian support for Hezbollah, rather than relying on military occupation to achieve disarmament.
中文摘要
長期的以色列占領黎巴嫩南部面臨戰略反效果的風險，可能強化而非削弱真主黨。該分析指出，軍事駐紮將進一步破壞黎巴嫩本已脆弱的國家機構，這些機構在近期衝突後已在提供服務和建立合法性上力不從心。儘管真主黨在2024年9月遭遇以色列針對其領導層的斬首行動而遭受重大損失，但以色列持續的軍事行動為該組織以分散的遊擊隊形式重組，並在黎巴嫩什葉派社區重建民眾支持創造了條件。報告建議優先加強國際支持以提升黎巴嫩國家能力與基本服務，同時透過外交途徑解決伊朗對真主黨的外部支持問題，而不應依賴軍事占領來實現武裝解除。
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