The analysis suggests that Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine is facing increasing internal and external pressures. Key evidence points to a tightening economic crisis, evidenced by widespread blackouts and a noticeable scaling back of traditional military displays. Furthermore, the discussion highlights Putin's increasing isolation and micromanagement, suggesting that the strategic initiative may be slipping out of Moscow's control. Policymakers should monitor these signs of internal strain, as they indicate potential vulnerabilities and a possible shift in Russia's military and geopolitical calculus.
Africa Aware: Rebuilding regional order and security in West Africa
English Summary
The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS and formation of the Alliance of Sahel States has fractured regional security cooperation at a critical moment, as the Sahel faces the world's highest terrorism burden according to the Global Terrorism Index. Essential security mechanisms have stalled on key cooperation issues including joint military operations, intelligence sharing, hot pursuit rights, and tackling illicit finance. Ghana and Nigeria's foreign ministers are advocating for localized security solutions adapted to the new regional configuration, suggesting West African security strategies must now function within a fragmented institutional landscape rather than traditional ECOWAS frameworks.
中文摘要
布基納法索、馬里和尼日爾退出西非經濟共同體並成立薩赫爾國家聯盟，在薩赫爾地區面臨全球最高恐怖主義威脅的關鍵時刻，這一舉動將區域安全合作分裂開來。根據全球恐怖主義指數，該地區面臨全球最嚴重的恐怖主義負擔。聯合軍事行動、情報共享、越境追擊權和打擊非法金融等關鍵安全合作機制已陷入停滯。加納和尼日利亞的外交部長正在提倡適應新區域格局的本地化安全解決方案，這表明西非安全戰略今後必須在碎片化的制度框架內運作，而非依賴傳統的西非經濟共同體框架。
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