The article argues that the United States' intense focus on extracting mineral wealth in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is undermining democratic governance by providing disproportionate political support to the current regime, led by Felix Tshisekedi. This support is evidenced by the timing of U.S. sanctions against Tshisekedi's predecessor, Joseph Kabila, which local commentators view as a gesture of political allegiance rather than purely strategic interest. This transactional approach has led Congolese citizens to perceive that the country's resources are being traded for political favors, creating deep local skepticism. Strategically, this reliance on mineral extraction to secure regime stability risks alienating the populace and could severely limit U.S. influence and access should the political landscape shift.
Africa
This topic hub groups ThinkTankWeekly entries tagged Africa and links readers back to the original publishers.
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Ghana is strategically positioning itself as a key actor in the fragmenting, multipolar global order by adopting a policy of 'multi-alignment.' The nation is deepening its regional influence by promoting West African security cooperation and hosting the AfCFTA Secretariat, while simultaneously championing global justice and inclusive multilateralism. This strategy involves initiatives like the Accra Reset and leading UN efforts to recognize the transatlantic slave trade as a crime against humanity. For policy makers, Ghana's approach suggests that African states are actively leveraging non-alignment to promote continental agency and contribute to a more balanced international governance system.
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The persistence of violence in Nigeria stems primarily from systemic governance failures across federal, state, and local levels, rather than solely from external threats. Key evidence points to underfunded security services, a culture of judicial impunity, and the neglect of borders and rural areas, which create havens for armed groups. Compounding this are severe socio-economic pressures, including widespread poverty, high youth unemployment, and deadly resource disputes (e.g., farmer-herder conflicts). For stability, the report argues that Nigeria requires substantial and sustained investments in institutional capacity and governance reform to reverse the descent into instability.
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Recent coordinated attacks in Mali, including the death of the Defense Minister, highlight a deteriorating security situation and the failure of military juntas and their Russian partners to effectively combat militant groups. The attacks, involving both al Qaeda-linked groups and Tuareg separatists, demonstrate a complex conflict driven by local grievances and separatist aspirations, not just terrorism. The U.S., as it re-engages in the Sahel, risks repeating Russia's mistakes by prioritizing security for resources and neglecting governance and local dynamics, necessitating a more multidimensional approach focused on genuine partnership and addressing underlying economic and political issues.
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The Chatham House analysis highlights that African institutions are crucial but face challenges in coordinating a durable peace process in the Great Lakes region. While past efforts have shown limitations, the region's complex conflict dynamics necessitate that African actors define and assert their strategic value. Effective peacebuilding requires greater synchronization between high-level diplomatic negotiations and localized, grassroots initiatives. Policy success depends on African institutions coordinating their efforts while strategically engaging with external mediators (e.g., the US, Qatar) to sustain comprehensive peace efforts.
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The recent coordinated attacks in Mali demonstrate that security cannot be achieved through military means alone, exposing the deep fragility of the ruling junta and its external alliances. The strikes by jihadist and Tuareg militants highlighted the limits of military support, including the withdrawal of Russian mercenaries, while simultaneously revealing profound, unresolved ethnic and political grievances. Consequently, the article argues that purely military solutions are unviable; sustainable stabilization requires a strategic pivot toward comprehensive political negotiation, local-level mediation, and addressing underlying community tensions.
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The Chatham House analysis highlights the critical role of grassroots, volunteer-led mutual aid groups, known as Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), in sustaining civilian life across Sudan since the 2023 conflict. These efforts are rooted in the local tradition of 'nafeer' (collective action), with Sudanese women playing a particularly vital role in providing medical and psychosocial support, especially against gender-based violence. The report emphasizes that these local responses are indispensable to the wider international humanitarian effort. Policymakers must therefore prioritize continued advocacy and direct support for these resilient, community-driven initiatives to ensure sustained humanitarian lifelines.
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Gen Z-led protests across Africa represent a powerful, digitally mobilized force demanding a fundamental renegotiation of the social contract and the dismantling of elitist political structures. These movements are fueled by widespread youth frustration over corruption, economic stagnation, and poor service delivery, forcing some governments to make limited concessions. However, the analysis cautions that protests alone are insufficient for systemic change; lasting reform requires strategic political engagement and institutional reform. Policymakers must recognize that the key challenge is for activists to transition from mere resistance to actively building and sustaining new political and economic institutions.
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The article argues that the U.S. attempt to disengage from the democracy discourse by remaining silent is strategically flawed, as authoritarian regimes and their supporters readily fill the void. Evidence from Cameroon demonstrates how entrenched leaders are manipulating constitutional law to maintain power, while anti-Western commentators use this vacuum to dismiss democracy as a 'sham.' This silence allows adversaries to interpret U.S. non-commentary as tacit approval, undermining American credibility. Consequently, the policy choice to prioritize realism over democratic principles allows rivals to define the U.S. agenda, serving their own geopolitical interests.
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The article argues that the administration's attempt to define 'America First' in Africa lacks coherence—promising to avoid public moralizing while publicly shaming South Africa over fabricated genocide claims and conducting spectacle-driven military strikes. The 'trade not aid' strategy is recycled from previous administrations and ignores why private investment remains scarce: security concerns, weak rule of law, and government legitimacy issues. Without addressing these fundamentals and developing a strategic vision for Africa's role by 2050, the U.S. risks losing influence to competitor powers and failing to advance genuine American interests.
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The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS and formation of the Alliance of Sahel States has fractured regional security cooperation at a critical moment, as the Sahel faces the world's highest terrorism burden according to the Global Terrorism Index. Essential security mechanisms have stalled on key cooperation issues including joint military operations, intelligence sharing, hot pursuit rights, and tackling illicit finance. Ghana and Nigeria's foreign ministers are advocating for localized security solutions adapted to the new regional configuration, suggesting West African security strategies must now function within a fragmented institutional landscape rather than traditional ECOWAS frameworks.
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African countries have largely maintained diplomatic silence and refused to align with Iran in the ongoing Iran war, disappointing Tehran's decades-long effort to build anti-Western alliances across the continent. Their cautious neutral stance reflects pragmatic calculations: protecting existing partnerships with the United States, Israel, and Gulf states; avoiding disruptions to critical oil and fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz; and preserving valuable bilateral development agreements. Iran's attempt to position itself as a theocratic alternative to Western values and leverage Shiite religious networks has largely backfired, with even traditional allies like South Africa offering only muted criticism. As Iran emerges weakened from the conflict, its capacity to pursue military, diplomatic, and religious objectives in Africa will diminish, ceding regional influence to Gulf states and the United States.
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Sudan's volunteer-led Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) were awarded the Chatham House Prize 2025 for their crucial humanitarian efforts amidst the ongoing conflict. This grassroots network, operating since April 2023, provides essential aid, medical support, education, and addresses gender-based violence to over thirty-three million displaced people across Sudan, often in areas inaccessible to international organizations. The recognition underscores the vital role of local initiatives in humanitarian crises, calling for sustained international support to protect civic spaces and empower Sudanese efforts for future rebuilding and transformation.
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The civil conflict in Sudan has resulted in a catastrophic state collapse since April 2023, creating one of the world's largest humanitarian crises. The fighting has devastated multiple regions, with battle lines shifting across the country and the capital, Khartoum, being heavily impacted. The sheer scale and complexity of the conflict suggest that traditional, localized military interventions are insufficient to resolve the crisis. Policymakers must therefore recognize that the war has outgrown the borders of Sudan, requiring a broader, multi-faceted strategic approach to address the underlying systemic instability.