The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Africa’s Silence on the Iran War Speaks Volumes
English Summary
African countries have largely maintained diplomatic silence and refused to align with Iran in the ongoing Iran war, disappointing Tehran's decades-long effort to build anti-Western alliances across the continent. Their cautious neutral stance reflects pragmatic calculations: protecting existing partnerships with the United States, Israel, and Gulf states; avoiding disruptions to critical oil and fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz; and preserving valuable bilateral development agreements. Iran's attempt to position itself as a theocratic alternative to Western values and leverage Shiite religious networks has largely backfired, with even traditional allies like South Africa offering only muted criticism. As Iran emerges weakened from the conflict, its capacity to pursue military, diplomatic, and religious objectives in Africa will diminish, ceding regional influence to Gulf states and the United States.
中文摘要
非洲國家在伊朗戰爭期間基本上保持外交沉默，並拒絕與伊朗立場一致，令德黑蘭數十年來在大陸建立反西方聯盟的努力感到失望。這種謹慎的中立立場反映了務實的考量：維護與美國、以色列和海灣國家的現有夥伴關係；避免荷爾木茲海峽關鍵石油和化肥供應中斷；以及保護有價值的雙邊發展協議。伊朗試圖將自己定位為西方價值觀的神權制替代方案，並利用什葉派宗教網絡的舉措基本上適得其反，即使南非等傳統盟國也僅提出含蓄的批評。隨著伊朗在衝突中國力衰弱，其在非洲追求軍事、外交和宗教目標的能力將大幅下降，區域影響力將被海灣國家和美國所取代。
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