ThinkTankWeekly

Africa’s Silence on the Iran War Speaks Volumes

CFR | 2026-03-28 | africa

Topics: Middle East, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Africa

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

African countries have largely maintained diplomatic silence and refused to align with Iran in the ongoing Iran war, disappointing Tehran's decades-long effort to build anti-Western alliances across the continent. Their cautious neutral stance reflects pragmatic calculations: protecting existing partnerships with the United States, Israel, and Gulf states; avoiding disruptions to critical oil and fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz; and preserving valuable bilateral development agreements. Iran's attempt to position itself as a theocratic alternative to Western values and leverage Shiite religious networks has largely backfired, with even traditional allies like South Africa offering only muted criticism. As Iran emerges weakened from the conflict, its capacity to pursue military, diplomatic, and religious objectives in Africa will diminish, ceding regional influence to Gulf states and the United States.

中文摘要

非洲國家在伊朗戰爭期間基本上保持外交沉默,並拒絕與伊朗立場一致,令德黑蘭數十年來在大陸建立反西方聯盟的努力感到失望。這種謹慎的中立立場反映了務實的考量:維護與美國、以色列和海灣國家的現有夥伴關係;避免荷爾木茲海峽關鍵石油和化肥供應中斷;以及保護有價值的雙邊發展協議。伊朗試圖將自己定位為西方價值觀的神權制替代方案,並利用什葉派宗教網絡的舉措基本上適得其反,即使南非等傳統盟國也僅提出含蓄的批評。隨著伊朗在衝突中國力衰弱,其在非洲追求軍事、外交和宗教目標的能力將大幅下降,區域影響力將被海灣國家和美國所取代。

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-07-24 | defense | 2026-W30 | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States

    The White House (via OMB) strongly protests Congressional efforts within the FY 2027 NDAA to prohibit the purchase of warships from foreign shipyards. The Administration argues that these restrictions undermine national security by limiting flexibility and hindering its strategy of leveraging allied yards, such as in the 'Finland model,' to drive investment into U.S. shipbuilding capacity. This signals a significant policy shift toward integrating international partners into advanced naval construction, suggesting the Pentagon is prepared to bypass traditional domestic build requirements for future combat vessels.

    Read at USNI

  2. 2.
    2026-07-24 | china_indopacific | 2026-W30 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, United States

    The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

    Read at USNI

  3. 3.
    2026-07-24 | middle_east | 2026-W30 | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  4. 4.
    2026-07-24 | economy | 2026-W30 | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

    The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.

    Read at CATO

  5. 5.
    2026-07-24 | china_indopacific | 2026-W30 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    Despite recent trade setbacks, the U.S. retains fundamental structural economic leverage over China, particularly in high-tech sectors and intermediate goods. While Beijing can temporarily weaponize specific resources like rare earths, these chokepoints are vulnerable to diversification efforts by the West. The article argues that the most effective strategy is not unilateral action but coordinated multilateral pressure from U.S. allies across Asia and Europe. Washington must therefore coordinate its economic statecraft with partners to maximize damage to China’s export-dependent model.

    Read at Foreign Affairs