The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Dealing for peace. How Trump has redefined conflict resolution
English Summary
Chatham House frames Trump’s conflict strategy as a deliberate break from traditional diplomacy, centered on his pledge to act as a “peacemaker and unifier” through high-pressure dealmaking. The core logic is transactional: use US leverage to force adversaries into negotiations and lock in outcomes across multiple conflicts, including Ukraine, Gaza, the South Caucasus, and the DRC. The event description highlights mixed and disputed results, arguing that while this approach can create openings, it also unsettles allies and even parts of Trump’s domestic base that see tension with an America First posture. For policymakers, the key implication is that US-led peacemaking may become more coercive and personalized, requiring partners to adapt quickly while planning for uneven sustainability and credibility risks across simultaneous theaters.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所將川普的衝突策略界定為對傳統外交的刻意斷裂，其核心是透過高壓式交易談判，兌現其作為「和平締造者與團結者」的承諾。其基本邏輯具有明顯交易性：運用美國槓桿迫使對手進入談判，並在多個衝突場域鎖定結果，包括烏克蘭、加薩、南高加索與剛果民主共和國。該活動說明強調成果好壞參半且具爭議，認為此作法雖可創造談判空間，卻也會擾動盟友，甚至使川普國內支持者中主張「美國優先」者感到路線緊張。對政策制定者而言，關鍵意涵在於：由美國主導的和平斡旋可能更具強制性與個人化，合作夥伴必須快速調適，同時規劃因多線並行而出現的永續性不均與可信度風險。
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