The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Coalitions of the Willing and the Strait of Hormuz
English Summary
CFR President Michael Froman argues that the US failure to build robust allied support for securing the Strait of Hormuz reflects a deeper erosion in coalition-building capacity stemming from inadequate consultation and allied perceptions that military action serves primarily US interests. Despite the Strait's critical importance—handling 40% of China's crude oil and significant European energy flows—responses from major allies ranged from outright refusal to lukewarm commitments, while China strategically abstained despite substantial vulnerability to supply disruption. The episode suggests Trump administration policies on tariffs and territorial claims have depleted the diplomatic capital necessary for allies to support US-led military operations, with significant implications for future security commitments requiring broad international participation.
中文摘要
CFR主席Michael Froman辯稱，美國未能為確保荷莫茲海峽安全而建立堅實的盟友支持，這反映了源於諮詢不足和盟友認為軍事行動主要服務於美國利益的更深層聯盟建設能力衰退。儘管該海峽具有關鍵戰略重要性—運輸中國40%的原油和重要的歐洲能源供應—主要盟國的回應從直言拒絕到冷淡承諾不等，而中國儘管面臨重大供應中斷風險，卻戰略性地棄權。這一事件表明，特朗普政府在關稅和領土主張上的政策已耗盡盟友支持美國領導軍事行動所需的外交資本，對需要廣泛國際參與的未來安全承諾具有重大影響。
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