The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Europe's far right sell themselves as the new realists. Are electorates buying it?
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Europe’s far-right parties are reframing themselves as pragmatic “realists” and are no longer fringe actors, with growing influence over mainstream policy agendas. The discussion highlights how their electoral rise is already shifting debates on migration, sovereignty, climate policy, and the EU’s strategic direction, even before full control of government. It reasons that if multiple major European states were governed by populists at once, the core uncertainty is whether they would moderate in office or intensify nationalist positions. The policy implication is that European governments and institutions should prepare for stress on cohesion, including weaker alignment on Ukraine and climate, more difficult UK-EU coordination, and stronger need for organized democratic counter-mobilization.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所指出，歐洲極右翼政黨正將自身重新定位為務實的「現實主義者」，不再只是邊緣行動者，且對主流政策議程的影響力持續上升。該討論強調，即使尚未全面掌握政府權力，其選舉聲勢的上升已在重塑關於移民、主權、氣候政策與歐盟戰略方向的辯論。其論證認為，若多個歐洲主要國家同時由民粹主義者執政，核心不確定性在於他們會在執政後走向溫和，或進一步強化民族主義立場。政策意涵是，歐洲各國政府與制度應為凝聚力承壓做好準備，包括在烏克蘭與氣候議題上的一致性可能減弱、英歐協調更趨困難，以及更需要有組織的民主反動員。
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