The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
No Marriage. No Babies. No Future. America’s Going From Birth to Death
English Summary
The Heritage commentary argues that declining marriage and fertility rates pose a core national risk, citing a Congressional Budget Office projection that the U.S. population would begin shrinking by 2030 without immigration. It contends that family breakdown, not just economics, is driving long-term demographic and social decline, and that married two-parent households outperform alternatives across social and economic outcomes. The piece advocates a pro-family policy agenda including removing marriage penalties in welfare, expanding tax credits for married families, and using public recognition to reinforce marital stability. Strategically, it calls conservatives to prioritize family formation as a central domestic policy objective and rejects reliance on mass immigration as the primary demographic solution.
中文摘要
傳統基金會（Heritage）評論指出，婚姻率與生育率下滑構成核心國家風險，並援引美國國會預算處（CBO）預測稱，若無移民，美國人口將於2030年前後開始萎縮。該文主張，推動長期人口與社會衰退的因素不僅是經濟，更在於家庭結構的瓦解；且在社會與經濟指標上，已婚雙親家庭的表現普遍優於其他家庭型態。文章倡議以家庭為本的政策議程，包括取消福利制度中的婚姻懲罰、擴大對已婚家庭的稅收抵免，並透過公共表彰機制強化婚姻穩定。就戰略層面而言，文中呼籲保守派將家庭形成列為核心內政目標，並反對將大規模移民作為主要人口對策。
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