The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iran War Is a Boon for Russia. Putin Should Still Worry.
English Summary
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran provides Russia with short-term advantages, such as increased oil revenues due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and the diversion of Western military aid from Ukraine, aiding its ongoing offensive. However, Russian elites are growing apprehensive, noting Russia's diminished global influence, exclusion from Middle East diplomacy, and the long-term strategic and economic drain of the Ukraine conflict. While U.S.-Russia relations have soured and Ukraine peace talks are paused, Putin's sustained belief in potential collaboration with the Trump administration currently prevents a more significant bilateral breakdown.
中文摘要
美國與以色列和伊朗的戰爭為俄羅斯帶來短期優勢，例如荷莫茲海峽關閉導致石油收入增加，以及西方對烏克蘭軍事援助的轉移，這有助於其正在進行的攻勢。然而，俄羅斯精英階層日益擔憂，他們注意到俄羅斯全球影響力減弱、被排除在中東外交之外，以及烏克蘭衝突帶來的長期戰略和經濟消耗。儘管美俄關係惡化且烏克蘭和談停滯，普京持續相信與川普政府潛在的合作，目前阻止了更重大的雙邊關係破裂。
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