The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Should the Gulf Arab states join the war against Iran?
English Summary
The article examines whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE should shift from defensive to offensive military operations against Iran. While both nations possess advanced air forces capable of striking Iranian targets, significant risks—including Iranian retaliation against critical infrastructure, potential US military withdrawal, and severe domestic political consequences of appearing aligned with Israel—make escalation strategically perilous. The economic case for offense is compelling, as Iran's cheaper drone strategy financially exhausts defenders; however, direct military confrontation could irreversibly damage future diplomatic relations and destabilize Gulf governments facing internal security threats. The Gulf Arab states face an unsustainable dilemma: continued defense drains resources while offensive operations risk catastrophic blowback.
中文摘要
本文探討沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合酋長國是否應將軍事戰略從防守轉向進攻以對抗伊朗。雖然兩國均擁有能夠打擊伊朗目標的先進空軍，但重大風險——包括伊朗對關鍵基礎設施的報復、美國可能撤出軍事支持，以及與以色列結盟帶來的嚴重國內政治後果——使軍事升級在戰略上極其危險。經濟上，進攻戰略具有說服力，因為伊朗低成本無人機策略會對防守方造成經濟耗損；然而，直接軍事對抗可能不可逆轉地損害未來的外交關係，並削弱正面臨內部安全威脅的海灣政府。海灣阿拉伯國家陷入不可持續的困境：持續防守耗盡資源，而進攻行動則冒著災難性反擊的風險。
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