The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Global Governance and Security Centre
English Summary
Chatham House argues that the post-1945 international order is under growing strain from renewed interstate aggression, coercive diplomacy, and great-power competition over future global rules. It reasons that credibility gaps—such as perceived Western double standards on Ukraine and Gaza—and a more transactional US foreign policy are accelerating institutional fragmentation. The centre’s approach is to identify which legacy norms can be preserved, where new rules are needed, and how to give greater weight to smaller states, aspiring middle powers, and Global South voices across security, law, digital, and health domains. For policymakers, the implication is that effective strategy now requires pragmatic institutional reform and broader coalition-building, rather than reliance on legacy governance frameworks alone.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所指出，1945年後形成的國際秩序正日益承受壓力，主因在於國家間侵略行為再起、脅迫式外交，以及大國對未來全球規則主導權的競爭。該機構認為，可信度落差——例如外界對西方在烏克蘭與加薩議題上採取雙重標準的觀感——再加上美國外交政策更趨交易化，正加速制度性碎片化。其研究取徑在於辨識哪些既有規範可予以維持、哪些領域需要新規則，並在安全、法律、數位與公共衛生等面向提升小型國家、崛起中的中等強國與全球南方聲音的權重。對決策者而言，其政策意涵是：有效戰略如今須倚賴務實的制度改革與更廣泛的聯盟建構，而非僅依靠既有治理框架。
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