The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Kazakhstan is rewriting its constitution. Is it an exercise in authoritarian modernisation?
English Summary
Kazakhstan is implementing sweeping constitutional amendments, including introducing a vice presidency and dissolving the upper house of parliament, which the government presents as modernization. However, critics argue these changes consolidate executive power and weaken existing checks and balances. The reforms raise critical questions about Kazakhstan's political trajectory, implications for presidential succession before the 2029 elections, the fate of Nazarbayev-era elites, and the country's relationship with Russia.
中文摘要
哈薩克正實施全面的憲法修正案，包括設立副總統職位和解散議會上院，政府將其宣傳為現代化進程。然而，批評者認為這些變革鞏固了行政權力，削弱了現有的制衡機制。這些改革引發了關於哈薩克政治走向、2029年選舉前總統繼任的影響、納扎爾巴耶夫時代精英的命運以及該國與俄羅斯關係的關鍵問題。
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