The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Members' question time: What next for Hungary?
English Summary
Chatham House frames Hungary’s 12 April 2026 election as a pivotal contest for both Hungary and the EU, with the potential to alter Europe’s political trajectory. The core argument is that Viktor Orbán’s long rule—marked by hardline migration policy, weakened judicial independence, and closer ties with Russia—has created sustained conflict with Brussels and concerns about democratic backsliding. The event highlights Péter Magyar and the TISZA movement as Orbán’s strongest challenger in years, citing polling that suggests a plausible upset and a pro-EU, centrist alternative. Strategically, the outcome could either reinforce Hungary’s current sovereigntist path or trigger a policy reset toward EU alignment, with spillover effects on the momentum of right-leaning populist forces across Europe.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所將匈牙利2026年4月12日選舉定位為對匈牙利與歐盟皆具關鍵意義的對決，可能改變歐洲政治走向。其核心論點指出，維克多・奧班（Viktor Orbán）長期執政期間所推動的強硬移民政策、司法獨立性削弱，以及與俄羅斯更緊密的關係，已造成與布魯塞爾的持續衝突，並引發民主倒退疑慮。該活動並強調彼得・馬扎爾（Péter Magyar）及TISZA運動是奧班多年來最具實力的挑戰者，援引民調顯示存在爆冷可能，且其提供親歐盟、中間路線的替代方案。從戰略層面看，選舉結果可能鞏固匈牙利當前的主權優先路線，或觸發朝向與歐盟一致的政策重置，並對歐洲各地右傾民粹勢力的動能產生外溢效應。
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