The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Why Allies Aren’t Following on Iran, With Kristi Govella and Constanze Stelzenmüller
English Summary
U.S. allies in Europe and Japan are largely declining to actively join the Iran war, signaling a shift towards strategic independence and pragmatism in their foreign policies despite U.S. pressure. European leaders cite past U.S. actions and domestic political factors for their reluctance, while Japan emphasizes constitutional constraints on military involvement, though both provide some U.S. operational support. The conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose severe economic threats to both regions, impacting energy security and global stability. This growing divergence in interests, coupled with waning U.S. soft power, prompts allies to hedge through diversified relationships, raising questions about the long-term cohesion of U.S. alliances.
中文摘要
儘管美國施壓，美國在歐洲和日本的盟友大多拒絕積極參與伊朗戰爭，這表明他們的外交政策正轉向戰略獨立和務實。歐洲領導人將其不情願歸因於美國過去的行動和國內政治因素，而日本則強調其憲法對軍事介入的限制，儘管兩者都向美國提供了一些行動支援。衝突和荷姆茲海峽的關閉對這兩個地區構成嚴重的經濟威脅，影響能源安全和全球穩定。這種日益增長的利益分歧，加上美國軟實力的減弱，促使盟友通過多元化關係進行對沖，這引發了對美國聯盟長期凝聚力的質疑。
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