The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Middle East and North Africa Programme
English Summary
Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme argues that better policy on the region requires grounded, field-based analysis of often overlooked drivers of conflict, governance stress, and state–society change. It supports this approach through a research model combining field data collection, bilingual policy publications, convening with decision-makers across sectors, and direct briefings in MENA, the UK, and the US. The programme’s focus on geopolitical competition, transnational conflict dynamics, political-economic networks, and accountability is presented as the analytical basis for more realistic policy choices. For strategy, the implication is that governments and institutions should rely on locally informed, cross-regional, and cross-sector evidence to design interventions and partnerships that are politically feasible and context-specific.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）中東與北非計畫主張，若要制定更有效的區域政策，必須建立在扎根在地、以田野為基礎的分析之上，並重視那些常被忽略、卻驅動衝突、治理壓力與國家－社會變遷的關鍵因素。該計畫透過結合田野資料蒐集、雙語政策出版、與跨部門決策者之間的對話召集，以及在中東與北非、英國與美國的直接簡報，來支持此一研究取徑。其對地緣政治競爭、跨國衝突動態、政治經濟網絡與問責機制的關注，被定位為形成更務實政策選項的分析基礎。就策略層面而言，這意味著各國政府與機構應依賴具在地知識、跨區域與跨部門的證據，來設計在政治上可行且符合具體情境的介入措施與夥伴關係。
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