The article outlines how a successful modern foreign policy career requires blending traditional diplomatic expertise with private sector acumen. Juster's career trajectory—from international law to high-stakes diplomacy (e.g., the Gulf War) and subsequently to the technology sector—demonstrates this synthesis. Key evidence includes his work managing complex negotiations under duress and his involvement in co-founding the U.S.-India High Technology Group. The implication for policy is that effective geopolitical strategy must actively integrate private sector knowledge and technological considerations to manage modern economic and security challenges.
Trendlines March 2026 Newsletter
English Summary
The CSIS 'Trendlines March 2026 Newsletter' asserts that the global AI race is evolving beyond mere model breakthroughs and compute performance. It highlights that structural trends in global energy systems are converging with changes in capital markets, industrial policy, and technology diffusion, becoming crucial determinants for future AI leadership. The newsletter aims to provide data-driven insights to help decision-makers distinguish credible hypotheses from hype by connecting various research areas within CSIS. For policy and strategy, this suggests an imperative to consider the integrated impact of energy, economic, and industrial factors when addressing the future of AI.
中文摘要
CSIS《2026年3月趨勢報告通訊》指出，全球人工智慧（AI）競賽的發展已超越單純的模型突破與運算效能。該報告強調，全球能源系統的結構性趨勢正與資本市場、產業政策及技術擴散的變化匯聚，成為決定未來AI領導地位的關鍵因素。此通訊旨在提供數據驅動的洞察，透過連結CSIS內部各研究領域，協助決策者區分可靠假設與市場炒作。對於政策與戰略而言，這意味著在應對AI的未來時，必須考量能源、經濟與產業等多重因素的整合影響。
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The analysis concludes that China will hold the upper hand at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, leveraging its dominance over critical minerals, rare earths, and magnet supply chains. This geopolitical leverage, combined with global instability (such as the Iran conflict), allows Beijing to dictate terms and buy time to consolidate its technological and industrial self-sufficiency. Strategically, the U.S. must avoid granting China a managed equilibrium by maintaining 'maximum pressure' on key sectors like AI and tech, rather than seeking broad agreements that could undermine American leadership.
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The article argues that the ongoing Iran War has triggered a severe global hunger crisis, exacerbated by U.S. aid cuts and policy neglect, pushing millions to the brink of starvation. Key evidence includes the termination of U.S. support in countries like Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, coupled with supply chain disruptions and massive cost increases across the region. Policy recommendations are urgent: the U.S. must immediately deploy its $5.4 billion in unspent humanitarian funds, establish a humanitarian corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, and reinstate life-saving aid to critical nations.
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The analysis cautions that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit must not result in short-term strategic concessions for the US, which risks undermining long-term stability. China is rapidly consolidating global power, leveraging US policy shifts and increasing its assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific and in technology. Strategically, the US must prioritize addressing the immediate crisis in Iran, where China holds significant leverage, and must also focus on joint cooperation on AI. Ultimately, the US must resist political impulses and pursue a robust strategy to counter China's growing challenge to global dominance.
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5.Rare earths are on Trump’s agenda in China. But US electronic waste offers an untapped source at home (Chatham House)
While China maintains critical dominance over the global rare earth processing supply chain, the US possesses a substantial, untapped domestic resource: electronic waste (e-waste). Estimates suggest that annual US e-waste contains enough rare earth magnets to meet a significant portion of projected domestic demand, far exceeding current domestic mining capacity. However, this potential is hampered by a lack of uniform federal recycling laws and specialized collection infrastructure, leading to valuable materials leaking out of the economy. To achieve mineral security, the US must shift its strategy from solely developing new mines to establishing a robust circular economy model. This requires federal policy intervention, investment in advanced separation technologies, and incentivizing product design for easy disassembly.