The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
The Iran war highlights the creeping use of AI in warfare
English Summary
The Iran war underscores the growing normalization of AI-supported targeting in modern warfare, raising significant concerns about its implications. While AI tools enhance efficiency in data processing and target identification, incidents like the alleged strike on an Iranian school highlight risks such as inaccuracies from faulty data and the reduction of human judgment in critical decisions. This trend necessitates the development of clear rules for AI use in conflict to mitigate errors and prevent civilian harm, even as a binding international framework remains distant.
中文摘要
伊朗戰爭凸顯了現代戰爭中人工智慧輔助目標鎖定日益常態化的趨勢，引發了對其影響的重大擔憂。儘管人工智慧工具提升了數據處理和目標識別的效率，但諸如據稱襲擊伊朗學校等事件，突顯了錯誤數據導致的不準確性以及關鍵決策中人類判斷力下降等風險。這一趨勢要求制定明確的人工智慧在衝突中使用的規則，以減少錯誤並防止平民傷亡，儘管具有約束力的國際框架仍遙遙無期。
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