The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Are Europe and the United States Finally Heading for Divorce?
English Summary
The analysis argues that the transatlantic relationship is strained by US unilateralism, challenging Europe's traditional posture of submission. Key evidence suggests that Europe's history of bending the knee to Washington has been detrimental, while recent acts of collective self-assertion—such as rejecting US pressure over Greenland or denying base access during the Iran crisis—have proven more effective. For policy, the findings imply that Europe must abandon reactive submission and instead prioritize internal cohesion, energy transition, and unified policy stances. This strategic shift is necessary for Europe to build genuine leverage and reduce its structural dependence on US protection.
中文摘要
本分析指出，跨大西洋關係正因美國的單邊主義而承受壓力，這挑戰了歐洲傳統上順從的姿態。關鍵證據顯示，歐洲歷史上過度屈從於華盛頓的行為弊端已顯，而近期展現的集體自主主張——例如拒絕美國關於格陵蘭的壓力，或在伊朗危機期間拒絕基地使用權——則證明更具成效。從政策層面來看，研究結果暗示歐洲必須擺脫被動的順從，轉而優先發展內部凝聚力、能源轉型和統一的政策立場。這種戰略轉變，對於歐洲建立真正的影響力並減少其對美國保護的結構性依賴至關重要。
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