The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Conflicts to Watch in 2026
English Summary
The CFR’s 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey identifies a significant rise in global instability, highlighting five high-likelihood, high-impact contingencies including intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and potential U.S. military operations in Venezuela. Based on a survey of over 600 experts, the report emphasizes a shift toward interstate conflict and identifies domestic political violence in the U.S. and AI-enabled cyberattacks as critical threats to national security. These findings suggest that the reduction of conflict prevention infrastructure and more coercive diplomatic stances increase the risk of the United States being drawn into costly, unpredicted military interventions.
中文摘要
外交關係協會（CFR）發布的《2026年預防優先次序調查》（Preventive Priorities Survey）指出全球不穩定局勢顯著升溫，並列出五項高機率且具備重大影響的突發事件，其中包括中東衝突加劇、俄烏戰爭，以及美國在委內瑞拉潛在的軍事行動。此報告彙整超過600位專家的調查意見，強調全球局勢正轉向國家間衝突，並將美國國內政治暴力與人工智慧驅動的網路攻擊視為國家安全的關鍵威脅。研究結果顯示，隨著衝突預防機制的削弱以及外交手段趨於強硬，美國被捲入高成本且非預期性軍事干預的風險正不斷增加。
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