The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The War in Iran Could Become Like the War in Ukraine
English Summary
The article argues that the conflict in Iran is likely to escalate into a protracted war, potentially mirroring the dynamics of the war in Ukraine. Initial US and Israeli military actions against Iran were predicated on the assumption that a swift, decisive strike would neutralize the regime and stabilize the situation, especially given failed nuclear talks and concerns over Iran's missile arsenal. However, the analysis suggests this assumption of a quick resolution is flawed, implying that the conflict will become a complex, long-term strategic challenge requiring significant policy adjustments.
中文摘要
本文論述伊朗的衝突極有可能升級為一場曠日持久的戰爭，其動態或會呼應烏克蘭戰爭的模式。最初美國和以色列針對伊朗的軍事行動，是基於一個假設：即一次迅速、決定性的打擊能夠瓦解政權並穩定局勢，特別是考慮到核談的失敗以及對伊朗飛彈庫存的擔憂。然而，此分析指出，這種快速解決的假設是存在缺陷的，暗示著該衝突將成為一個複雜、長期的戰略挑戰，需要進行重大的政策調整。
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