The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Film screening: Oscar-shortlisted The President’s Cake
English Summary
The film 'The President’s Cake' examines how authoritarian power in Iraq was sustained through everyday social practices and internal control rather than through coercion alone. It highlights that regime durability often depends on the shaping of societal behavior to reinforce compliance under oppressive systems. These insights are critical for understanding contemporary Middle Eastern political trajectories, state-society relations, and the enduring legacies of authoritarian control on reform prospects.
中文摘要
電影《總統的蛋糕》探討了伊拉克的威權統治如何透過日常社會實踐和內部控制，而非單純依靠脅迫手段來維持。該片強調，政權的持久性往往取決於對社會行為的塑造，以強化在壓迫體制下的服從。這些見解對於理解當代中東的政治軌跡、國家與社會關係，以及威權控制對改革前景的深遠影響至關重要。
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