The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Film screening: Oscar-shortlisted The President’s Cake
English Summary
The film 'The President’s Cake' examines how authoritarian power in Iraq was sustained through everyday social practices and internal control rather than through coercion alone. It highlights that regime durability often depends on the shaping of societal behavior to reinforce compliance under oppressive systems. These insights are critical for understanding contemporary Middle Eastern political trajectories, state-society relations, and the enduring legacies of authoritarian control on reform prospects.
中文摘要
電影《總統的蛋糕》探討了伊拉克的威權統治如何透過日常社會實踐和內部控制，而非單純依靠脅迫手段來維持。該片強調，政權的持久性往往取決於對社會行為的塑造，以強化在壓迫體制下的服從。這些見解對於理解當代中東的政治軌跡、國家與社會關係，以及威權控制對改革前景的深遠影響至關重要。
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