The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
War in Ukraine
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Russia’s invasion is not only devastating Ukraine physically but also accelerating a deeper political transition away from entrenched old-rule networks and vested interests. Its reasoning is that Ukraine was already under internal pressure for reform, and wartime mobilization has intensified public demand for new rules and empowered a newer generation of policymakers. The analysis also stresses that sustained external backing for Ukraine’s defense is structurally shaping the country’s postwar trajectory, making a return to prewar political equilibrium unlikely. Policy-wise, partners should pair military support with long-term institution-building and governance reform assistance to lock in a more resilient Ukrainian state.
中文摘要
研究所指出，俄羅斯的入侵不僅在物理層面重創烏克蘭，也正在加速其更深層的政治轉型，使其逐步脫離根深蒂固的舊體制網絡與既得利益結構。其論證認為，烏克蘭原本即承受內部改革壓力，而戰時動員進一步強化了社會對新規則的需求，並賦權給新一代政策制定者。該分析亦強調，國際社會持續支持烏克蘭防衛，正從結構上塑造其戰後發展路徑，使其回到戰前政治均衡的可能性降低。就政策而言，夥伴國應將軍事援助與長期制度建設及治理改革支持相結合，以鞏固更具韌性的烏克蘭國家體制。
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