The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Is Iran one crisis too many for Trump? Independent Thinking podcast
English Summary
President Trump's military campaign against Iran, now three weeks in, is failing to secure international support despite his appeals to NATO and other allies. The US administration faces reluctance from traditional partners to participate or be drawn into the conflict, driven by concerns about regional instability, economic disruption, and the risks of Tehran's retaliatory escalation. The muted European response and lukewarm Gulf state backing complicate the broader strategic objective of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic isolation raises questions about US credibility and alliance cohesion precisely when the administration is simultaneously managing crises in Ukraine, Cuba, and Venezuela.
中文摘要
川普總統針對伊朗的軍事行動已進行三週，儘管向北約及其他盟國呼籲，仍未能爭取到國際支持。美國政府面臨傳統盟國不願參與或被捲入衝突的局面，此乃源於對區域穩定、經濟衝擊及伊朗報復性升級風險的擔憂。歐洲反應不力及波灣國家支持有限，複雜化了重新開放荷木茲海峽這一更廣泛的戰略目標。此種外交孤立態勢引發對美國信譽與盟國凝聚力的質疑，特別是在政府同時應對烏克蘭、古巴及委內瑞拉危機的當下。
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