The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Assessing the Air Campaign After Three Weeks: Iran War By the Numbers
English Summary
After three weeks, the air campaign in the Iran War shows a sustained U.S. strike tempo, adapted to use less expensive munitions, while Iranian drone and missile launches have significantly declined but persist, notably targeting Gulf states' energy facilities. Gulf allies report high interception rates of 80-90%, but their interceptor inventories are reportedly dwindling. The ongoing conflict signals continued regional instability, raising critical questions about Iran's remaining military capabilities and the potential for a U.S. military operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
中文摘要
伊朗戰爭爆發三週後，空中行動顯示美軍維持了穩定的打擊節奏，並已調整策略以使用成本較低的彈藥。與此同時，伊朗的無人機與飛彈發射量雖顯著下降但仍持續進行，且主要針對海灣國家的能源設施。儘管海灣盟國報告攔截率高達 80% 至 90%，但據報其攔截彈庫存正趨於枯竭。此一持續衝突預示區域局勢將長期動盪，並引發各界對伊朗剩餘軍事能力，以及美軍是否會採取軍事行動以確保荷姆茲海峽安全等關鍵議題的關注。
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