The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Venezuela, oil and order: What now for regional security after the US seizes Maduro?
English Summary
The panel argues that the U.S. seizure of Maduro marks a broader shift to explicit hemispheric power politics, where Washington is willing to use force based on narrowly defined national interests rather than traditional multilateral norms. Speakers contend that while the operation was tactically successful, it does not resolve Venezuela’s underlying governance, corruption, and institutional collapse, making durable stabilization and democratic transition highly uncertain. They also stress that the oil rationale is weak: Venezuela’s heavy crude, degraded infrastructure, legal uncertainty, and soft global demand make rapid production recovery costly and commercially unattractive, while disruption to China is likely limited. Strategically, the event signals a more fragmented Latin America, pressures partners into pragmatic bilateral bargaining with the U.S., and suggests policymakers should prioritize scenario planning for follow-on interventions, institutional reconstruction pathways, and tighter coordination among non-U.S. actors to preserve regional sovereignty and stability.
中文摘要
該場座談主張，美國對馬杜羅的拘捕標誌著一種更廣泛的轉向：西半球權力政治走向更明確化，華府更願意依據狹義界定的國家利益動用武力，而非遵循傳統多邊規範。與會者認為，儘管此次行動在戰術層面成功，卻無法解決委內瑞拉在治理、貪腐與制度崩解上的根本問題，使長期穩定與民主轉型的前景高度不確定。他們亦強調，以石油作為行動理由的說服力偏弱：委內瑞拉重質原油特性、基礎設施惡化、法律不確定性與全球需求疲軟，使短期內快速恢復產能成本高且商業吸引力不足，對中國造成的干擾也可能有限。從戰略層面看，此事件顯示拉丁美洲將更趨碎片化，並迫使夥伴國與美國進行更務實的雙邊談判；同時也意味著決策者應優先推動後續干預情境規劃、制度重建路徑設計，以及非美國行為者之間更緊密協調，以維護區域主權與穩定。
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