The analysis suggests that Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine is facing increasing internal and external pressures. Key evidence points to a tightening economic crisis, evidenced by widespread blackouts and a noticeable scaling back of traditional military displays. Furthermore, the discussion highlights Putin's increasing isolation and micromanagement, suggesting that the strategic initiative may be slipping out of Moscow's control. Policymakers should monitor these signs of internal strain, as they indicate potential vulnerabilities and a possible shift in Russia's military and geopolitical calculus.
Environment and Society Centre
English Summary
Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre argues that environmental challenges are systemic drivers of both global geopolitics and local societal risk, requiring integrated policy responses. Its reasoning is based on independent, multidisciplinary research that links climate change and resource depletion to security, economic, and community resilience outcomes, while convening cross-sector expertise to test policy-relevant ideas. The centre prioritizes three action areas: climate and energy transition, sustainable food/land/resource systems, and financing accelerated sustainability transitions. Through its Sustainability Accelerator, it also promotes experimental, innovation-oriented policymaking to move beyond incremental change. For policymakers and strategists, the implication is to adopt cross-sector, evidence-based, and finance-backed transition strategies that pair mitigation with adaptation and resilience-building.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）環境與社會中心主張，環境挑戰是驅動全球地緣政治與在地社會風險的系統性因素，因而需要整合式政策回應。其論證建立在獨立且跨學科的研究基礎上，將氣候變遷與資源耗竭連結至安全、經濟與社區韌性等結果，並透過召集跨部門專業共同檢驗具政策相關性的構想。該中心優先推動三大行動領域：氣候與能源轉型、永續的糧食／土地／資源系統，以及為加速永續轉型提供融資。透過其「永續加速器」（Sustainability Accelerator），中心亦倡議以實驗性、創新導向的政策制定方式，突破漸進式變革。對政策制定者與策略規劃者而言，其意涵在於採取跨部門、以證據為基礎、並有金融支持的轉型策略，將減緩措施與調適及韌性建構相結合。
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The analysis concludes that China will hold the upper hand at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, leveraging its dominance over critical minerals, rare earths, and magnet supply chains. This geopolitical leverage, combined with global instability (such as the Iran conflict), allows Beijing to dictate terms and buy time to consolidate its technological and industrial self-sufficiency. Strategically, the U.S. must avoid granting China a managed equilibrium by maintaining 'maximum pressure' on key sectors like AI and tech, rather than seeking broad agreements that could undermine American leadership.
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The analysis cautions that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit must not result in short-term strategic concessions for the US, which risks undermining long-term stability. China is rapidly consolidating global power, leveraging US policy shifts and increasing its assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific and in technology. Strategically, the US must prioritize addressing the immediate crisis in Iran, where China holds significant leverage, and must also focus on joint cooperation on AI. Ultimately, the US must resist political impulses and pursue a robust strategy to counter China's growing challenge to global dominance.
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4.Rare earths are on Trump’s agenda in China. But US electronic waste offers an untapped source at home (Chatham House)
While China maintains critical dominance over the global rare earth processing supply chain, the US possesses a substantial, untapped domestic resource: electronic waste (e-waste). Estimates suggest that annual US e-waste contains enough rare earth magnets to meet a significant portion of projected domestic demand, far exceeding current domestic mining capacity. However, this potential is hampered by a lack of uniform federal recycling laws and specialized collection infrastructure, leading to valuable materials leaking out of the economy. To achieve mineral security, the US must shift its strategy from solely developing new mines to establishing a robust circular economy model. This requires federal policy intervention, investment in advanced separation technologies, and incentivizing product design for easy disassembly.
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The U.S.-China trade relationship remains defined by intense competition, characterized by persistent tariffs and tech export controls, despite temporary truces. While the conflict is driven by concerns over trade imbalances and China's adherence to global rules, the two economies remain deeply interdependent, making complete decoupling highly unlikely. Policy efforts are shifting away from achieving a definitive 'win' and toward managing this complex interdependence. Strategically, the U.S. must navigate the tension between protecting critical domestic industries and maintaining necessary global supply chains, suggesting a need for formalized mechanisms to manage future trade agreements.