The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Preparing for the Day After in Europe
English Summary
CFR analysts argue that Western policymakers must immediately begin planning for a post-settlement Europe, as a ceasefire in Ukraine will not eliminate Russia's long-term security threat but rather shift it toward hybrid warfare and military testing of NATO cohesion. Potential risks include deepening transatlantic friction over sanctions relief and commercial normalization with Moscow, alongside intra-European disputes regarding defense burden-sharing. To mitigate these threats, the report recommends a G7-coordinated Russia strategy, a revitalized 'Harmel-style' NATO blueprint for dual-track deterrence, and the implementation of new Europe-wide risk reduction measures to stabilize the expanded NATO-Russia border.
中文摘要
CFR 分析師指出，西方決策者必須立即開始規劃協議達成後的歐洲，因為烏克蘭停火並不會消除俄羅斯的長期安全威脅，而是會將其轉向混合戰，並對北約的凝聚力進行軍事測試。潛在風險包括在解除制裁以及與莫斯科商業關係正常化問題上加深跨大西洋摩擦，以及歐洲內部關於國防負擔分擔的爭議。為了減輕這些威脅，報告建議制定一項由 G7 協調的對俄戰略、一份振興的「哈默爾式」北約雙軌威懾藍圖，並實施新的全歐洲風險降低措施，以穩定擴大後的北約與俄羅斯邊境。
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