The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Director’s Annual Lecture 2026
English Summary
Maddox argues that the international system has shifted into destabilizing US-China superpower rivalry, with both powers undermining global peace and prosperity in different ways. She contends that Washington’s transactional unilateralism under Trump and Beijing’s coercive techno-industrial expansion have together weakened alliances, eroded legal norms, and increased risks of conflict, including over Taiwan and transatlantic security. The lecture supports this with examples including tariff coercion, pressure over critical minerals, intensified military signaling, and challenges to institutions such as NATO, the UN system, and global trade mechanisms. Strategically, she calls on non-superpower states to strengthen and build institutions, resolve regional conflicts through principled coalitions, and actively uphold international law to preserve a rules-based order without relying on US leadership.
中文摘要
Maddox 主張，國際體系已轉向一種造成不穩定的美中超級強權競逐，且兩國以不同方式共同侵蝕全球和平與繁榮。她認為，華府在川普時期展現的交易式單邊主義，以及北京帶有強制性的科技—產業擴張，已共同削弱同盟、侵蝕法律規範，並提高衝突風險，包括台灣與跨大西洋安全。該演講並以多項案例支持此論點，包括關稅脅迫、對關鍵礦產施壓、軍事訊號升級，以及對北約、聯合國體系與全球貿易機制等制度的挑戰。在戰略層面，她呼籲非超級強權國家強化並建構制度，透過具原則性的聯盟解決區域衝突，並積極捍衛國際法，以在不依賴美國領導的情況下維護以規則為基礎的國際秩序。
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